THE growth of the Australian national cattle herd is on track to increase throughout this year, resulting in a high supply of both young cattle and finished weight animals to market well into next year.
This is according to the latest Cattle Industry Projections update from Meat & Livestock Australia, which notes the national cattle herd will reach its highest level since 2014 at 28.7 million head.
Stocking rates in southern Australia, particularly in NSW, are at levels well above long-term averages.
Northern Australia will develop its herd rebuild on the back of a very strong wet season generally.
MLA senior market information analyst Ripley Atkinson said the longer-term outlook of higher supply was ensured, with above-average marking rates continuing despite a forecast return to average or below-average seasonal conditions.
“The genetic investment producers have made in building a productive, fertile breeding herd during the past three years will contribute significantly to delivering continued high supplies of young cattle into 2024,” Mr Atkinson said.
Beef production was forecast to strongly increase this year as a result of improvements in processing capacity, higher slaughter volumes and historically elevated carcase weights.
Slaughter for this year was forecast to reach 6.95 million head, a revision upwards of 5 per cent, or 325,000 head, on January figures.
“Processors are continuing to manage higher supplies of slaughter weight stock and this trend is expected to continue for the remainder of the year,” Mr Atkinson said.
“So far in 2023, the cattle market has operated as it typically does throughout the first six months of the year.
“It’s not uncommon for higher turn-off of stock leading into winter to place downward pressure on price.
“However, the previous three years have been the exception due to the rebuild following years of drought, and the impacts of COVID.
“In considering these major events, it is important to acknowledge these years were outliers when it comes to examining trends in cattle prices.”
As part of the report, MLA also collated price forecast information from industry analysts.
These analysts’ forecasts to the end of the year indicate a stabilisation in prices relative to the volatile market of last year, although with forecast levels to be below longer-term averages for both the EYCI and the Feeder steer.
Based on current rates, analyst forecasts to December 31 were for the EYCI to be 546c, a 10c/kg carcase weight or 2 per cent decline.
If this forecast eventuates, the price would be 13.5 per cent or 85c lower than the 10-year average.
The remainder of this year was expected to produce continued improvements in both supply of cattle and beef to market as slaughter rates increased.
