In late March, MLA’s market information team forecast cattle slaughter rates in April would decline sharply (with April 2023 the shortest working month since 2017).
The team also predicted slaughter rates would rebound strongly in May.
The May performance data month-on-month and year-on-year indicates these expectations for a strong improvement in kill numbers were realised.
May versus April 2023: Weekly average kill numbers for May rose by 20 per cent or 17,500 head compared to April. Kill numbers for May were higher by 20 per cent or 70,000 head month-on-month compared to April.
May 2023 vs May 2022: Weekly average kill numbers for May 2023 were higher by 30 per cent or 24,000 head year-on-year. Total kill numbers for May 2023 were higher by 30 per cent or 97,000 head year-on-year.
Evidently, significant increases in throughput occurred during May as processors shook off shortened working weeks and lifted numbers.
Larger numbers of finished stock provided processors with ample choice, although the improvements in May kill numbers were also directly tied to the lack of rain across many parts of the eastern seaboard at the time.
In year-to-date terms, 2023 volumes are the highest they’ve been since 2020, with this year’s figures 26 per cent or 467,000 head higher than 2022 totals.
Compared to 2021 when Australia processed 6 million head of cattle, year-to-date slaughter rates are higher by 11 per cent or 231,000 head.
Importantly, as the calf drops from 2021 and early 2022 reach finished weights, the increasing supply of slaughter-weight stock has been met with continually improving processor capacity.
Evidence of this has been seen in recent weeks, with weekly slaughter numbers reaching their highest levels in more than three years.
Based on 2023 performance so far, MLA recently released its cattle industry projections, which forecast an 18 per cent or 1.1 million head increase in slaughter numbers year-on-year.
Current weekly performance suggests these volumes are attainable.
Despite the outlook for higher slaughter, 2023 figures (if realised) would remain 9 per cent or 689,000 head below the 10-year average.
If processors continue to operate at or around current kill rates and labour issues ease with improved access to international migrants, MLA’s market information team forecasts high volumes of slaughter-weight animals will come to market as the year progresses.
