Australia had been track to harvest a near-record winter grain crop of 61.9 million tonnes, according to Rabobank’s 2022/23 Australian Winter Crop Forecast.
But widespread flooding and record rainfall – especially across Victoria and NSW but also in other states, is fast changing the outlook.
“Excessive rain leading into harvest followed significant issues at planting, where some farmers replanted up to three times or had to abandon hectares all together,” said report author, RaboResearch agricultural analyst Dennis Voznesenski.
“But now Queensland and NSW are facing downgrades in yield and quality. Rain forecasts for the Mallee, including the upper Mallee, are telling us there will be more, a lot more than average, so the outcome is still a moving target.”
Just a month ago Quambatook farmer Lou Chirnside, was expecting a massive canola crop, as well as other cereals. He reckoned the only thing that might get in their way was frost.
But then the region received 145.2mm in 12 days during October – a record for the month. Its long-term average for October is 36.7mm.
Year to date it has received 517.9mm against a year-to-date average of 315.8mm.
In its newly-released report, the specialist agribusiness bank says despite the weather challenges, the nation is set to harvest its third consecutive bumper winter crop.
Forecast to be down only one per cent on last year – which broke all-time production records – the total grain crop is estimated to be 41 per cent above the five-year average.
Mr Voznesenski, says while it is too soon to quantify the impact of heavy rainfall and flooding in recent days in Victoria on the state’s overall production, “there has been significant impact to yields on low-lying crops with many under water in central and northern Victoria, however crops on rolling and rising country have fared better.
“And the challenge of a wet harvest will be compounded by labour shortages, with many farmers having to change harvest strategies as a result of insufficient labour.”
The bumper harvest will also likely cause more transport headaches, with plenty of grain and oilseeds intended for export.
However, the ability to supply those markets will also be limited by supply chain bottlenecks, both in regional areas and with capacity at Australian ports.
The exportable surplus in Australia from the 2022/23 harvest is expected to exceed the nation’s official estimated 2021 national export capacity of 47.5 million tonnes, Mr Voznesenski added.
For Australia’s grains and oilseeds, the report sees the strong local supply limiting the potential of prices moving above current levels for a sustained time during the harvest period.
