Demand for Australian almonds in one of the most challenging seasons on record has exceeded expectations.
The Almond Board of Australia’s final monthly sales position report of the 2023-24 season shows an end-of-season all time sales record for the industry.
Despite producing a 103,381 tonne crop, 34 per cent down on pre-harvest estimates, Australian marketers managed to sell in excess of 131,000 tonnes to surpass the previous season’s record level of 129,500.
A record which had been achieved against an intake of just more than 140,000 tonnes.
The annual figures suggest unsold stock from previous seasons has been cleared out, with key manufacturing markets such as Turkiye and Spain as well as the Californian recyclers of low grade material having posted huge volume increases.
Spain is up 23 per cent with 10,609 tonnes, Turkiye up 83 per cent with 11,104 tonnes and the US up 33 per cent at almost 4000 tonnes.
Other features of the season include a downturn in China, which exceeded 50,000 tonnes last year.
For the first time since the Free Trade Agreement with China in 2017, almond sales declined, largely due to reduced availability of high grade inshell in a wet season. Ironically, the other main inshell market in the world, India, was up 114 per cent driven by the introduction of a 50 per cent reduction in tariffs for kernel and inshell.
The 2024 harvest is almost completed and it is expected that yields will return to long term forecast and meet demand in a range of key markets.
A largely dry harvest has resulted in improved quality of inshell, which is likely to increase interest from China and India.
It has been one of the toughest seasons with historically low pricing and reduced volumes.
Breaking even was a challenge for many growers given the costs of production, low returns and drastically reduced volumes.
The 2023 crop was a statistical outlier than no-one saw coming, and on reflection, suggest that wet years provide just the same type of yield setbacks that prolonged periods of drought have done in the past.
The unusual sales data for the season was a direct result of the unexpected low yields.
The industry always carries old season crop into the new season, and it appears that processors have opted to clear their warehouses of this type of old inventory to offset a smaller crop and boost revenue.
The challenge, of course, is that old season product does not fetch the same premium pricing as new season and is usually diverted into markets that are looking for low-cost manufacturing grade stock.
At the same time, growing conditions in the lead up to the 2023 crop were less than ideal.
Above average rain, cold pollination and a cooler lead up to harvest all contributed to the yield reduction.
Almond trees do not produce well in wet and humid conditions, which is why the industry’s footprint is across the southern Murray Darling Basin.
Our hot dry summers and chilly winters are key climatic elements that make it one of the best places to grow almonds in the world.
India and China remain integral markets, especially for inshell sales, while European destinations like Germany and Netherlands remain pivotal to our premium end products. It remains to be seen whether the volumes to Spain and Turkiye are sustainable now that processors have cleared out a lot of their older inventory.
The ABA’s marketing strategy is to focus on established markets while developing in emerging areas like South-East Asia and the Middle East who have not sourced a lot of almonds from Australia in the past.
