The 2023 Australian almond crop has failed to live up to pre-season expectations and looks set to be down by 30 per cent on those forecasts.
Australian Almonds chief executive Tim Jackson says the “unprecedented drop in yield for the industry” has left industry stakeholders pointing to a range of contributing factors.
Mr Jackson says a combination of poor pollination weather, a shortage of beehives in key Victorian orchards, poor-quality water during flooding in the southern Murray Darling Basin and generally unfavourable weather throughout the growing season have all been cited as factors in the low out-turns.
He says this will be a “huge blow for growers who are already dealing with high costs of production and low global pricing”.
“We are in for another tough year. We have had storms, beehive shortages, floods, high input costs and low prices, so this is just another challenge for the industry,” Mr Jackson added.
He says the ABA had posted a pre-season crop estimate of 156,200 tonnes in January but its official post-harvest 2023 crop estimate sits at 108,950 tonnes, not just down 30 per cent, but also a 5 per cent drop on April’s industry update.
Mr Jackson says the world’s three major almond producing countries – US, Spain and Australia – are all facing lower than expected crops in 2023.
“California has gone from drastic drought to flooding and is almost certain to be well below earlier predictions,” he says.
“As a result the global supply outlook for almonds is currently being squeezed due to these supply shortages.”
He says hopes the later-season varieties will not be down as much have failed to materialise, resulting in the biggest single-season crop shortfall the industry has experienced.
He says growers and marketers have both been blindsided by the small crop.
“No-one saw this coming so it will have significant ramifications right along the supply chain,” Mr Jackson added.
The Californian industry produces 80 per cent of the world almond crop and dictates global pricing, but the annual US Department of Agriculture subjective crop forecast came in at 2.5 billion pounds, down 3.2 per cent on last year.
Mr Jackson says the silver lining out of California shipments is that season to date they are 3.5 per cent higher than last year which, if sustained, will reduce the estimated carryover crop and help bring the supply-demand equation back into balance – and hopefully help lift pricing to more sustainable levels.
