THE Australian almond industry looks set to crack a big year after some subdued recent seasons with sales still tracking 5 per cent better than the previous 12 months.
Both Almonds Australia and global agri-financier Rabobank agree the industry is set to turn around.
In the closing weeks of the 2023 selling season, Australian almond sales are well ahead of the previous season, despite posting a crop that fell 34 per cent below expected yields, as processors continue to clear residual stock carried over from previous seasons.
The volume sold for 2023 (120,857 tonnes) is now more than 17,000 tonnes ahead of the actual crop intake for the same season.
Almonds Australia chief executive Tim Jackson says the demand demonstrates the success the industry has had in diversifying its market footprint.
Mr Jackson says exports have been recorded in more than 40 countries since March, with China, India, Spain, Turkiye, Vietnam and the Australian domestic market taking the largest volumes.
New trade agreements have fuelled demand in China and India.
“The industry continues to have a focus on South-East Asia, given its proximity to Australia,” Tim adds.
“Official data for the closing two months of the 2023-24 season (January-February) is expected to push annual sales volume close to the previous year’s record of 129,424 tonnes despite the dramatic downturn in production (from 140,000 tonnes to 103,000),” he says.
Rabobank associate analyst Pia Piggott says the bank expects to see margin improvement thanks to lower input prices, affordable water prices and high water availability, better climatic conditions and improving export prices.
She says this will be welcome news to Australian growers, whose margins were squeezed in the past year due to reduced volumes, lower yields and increased production costs.
“The 2024 Australian almond harvest is now underway and there are prospects of a strong result, with the latest industry forecasts tipping 164,000 metric tons kernel weight equivalent (KWE), 59 per cent higher than the official intake for last year’s harvest.
Ms Piggott is confident the improved harvest prospect will help fuel Australia’s almond exports, which on average account for 80 per cent of our production.
“Shipments in the marketing year have been up eight per cent in volume, exceeding the crop size for 2023 and resulting in a significant reduction in carry-out volume,” she said.
There were mixed results across export markets during the year, she said.
“The reduction of tariffs on Australian almonds to India has prompted significant growth in trade to the region, with volumes up 140 per cent year-on-year in 2023, even though in China, Australia’s largest export destination, the sluggish economy has softened consumer demand and exports to the region are down 32 per cent year-on-year.
“Fortunately, growth in other markets and in domestic sales has been positive, as Australia continues to diversify its export destinations.”
Ms Piggott says the bank expects a strong rebound in international almond prices in the next 12 to 18 months, despite global production returning to higher levels.
“Production challenges in 2022 and 2023, coupled with an ongoing recovery in global demand, will drive ending stocks to their lowest level in four years. The lower carry-in expected in 2024 and its powerful, multi-year impact on the market are setting the stage for potential price stabilisation at stronger levels,” she says.
The bank anticipates while almond production will hit new records over the next five years, so will export shipments.
