THE 2025 almond harvest wrapped up earlier than expected with all growers finished before Easter.
The early finish surprised many, but hot, dry conditions and smaller volumes than anticipated all contributed to the quick finish.
The ABA’s long-term tonnage timelines calculated on bearing hectares and long-term average yields had predicted 2025 would produce more than 170,000 tonnes, but a revised estimate of 155,000 was published just before harvest.
Feedback from processors has suggested this revised number could be difficult to meet and hot growing conditions and unseasonal frosts in September are both being blamed for the accentuated shortfall.
The lighter crack-outs of nonpareil kernel will impact tonnages processed and impact grower returns.
Fortunately for growers, favourable market conditions and a low Australian dollar exchange rate will go some way to compensating for the lower yields.
Global pricing continues to climb as the Californian crop receipts come to light and their 2025 subjective estimate of 2.8 billion pounds this week will do nothing to cool this upward trend.
For Australian growers, the uncertainty around tariffs for Californian product landing in China and other destinations has pushed buyers Down Under.
Chinese buyers have been on this path since 2017 when the Free Trade Agreement with Australia gave Australian almonds a decided advantage over California.
This advantage in more recent times has just continued to grow as the trade war has escalated.
Where this will all end is uncertain, but right now, international buyers are loving Australian almonds like never before.
Longer term, Australian almond production will not be able to meet the growing interest this uncertainty is creating and will need the Californian product accessible at affordable rates to maintain the growth in demand.
Australia only produces about 10 per cent of world supply while California grows almost 80 per cent, and backs this up with considerable marketing capital.
There is no prospect of Australian production increasing significantly given the local uncertainties around water availability and cost for irrigators.
While global pricing is much stronger, this is the first time in several years returns have exceeded the costs of production.
So, the challenge for both the Australian and Californian almonds boards is to continue to deliver marketing programs that help drive a level of demand that commands a price above the ever-increasing costs of production.
Marketing is never an exact science but there is a reason iconic consumer brands continue to heavily invest in promoting their product. Remaining front of mind and relevant to consumers costs dollars but delivers demand that boosts bottom lines.
A former chief of Coca-Cola was once asked why the company invested so much in marketing when it was already the number one soft drink in the world.
He said if you have a fully ladened passenger jet, travelling at top speed at optimum altitude you don’t turn off the engines.
The almond boards of California and Australia have done an incredible job of lifting the awareness of the benefits of eating almonds each day.
But in times where consuming messaging is more crowded than ever, it is important to stay committed to the cause and invest in the programs that keep us front of mind, and help deliver the premium growers need on a more consistent basis.
Tim Jackson
Chief executive Almond Board of Australia
